Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.

Davies, Nicholas GORCID logo; Abbott, SamORCID logo; Barnard, Rosanna CORCID logo; Jarvis, Christopher IORCID logo; Kucharski, Adam JORCID logo; Munday, James DORCID logo; Pearson, Carl ABORCID logo; Russell, Timothy WORCID logo; Tully, Damien CORCID logo; Washburne, Alex DORCID logo; +15 more...Wenseleers, TomORCID logo; Gimma, Amy; Waites, WilliamORCID logo; Wong, Kerry LMORCID logo; van Zandvoort, KevinORCID logo; Silverman, Justin DORCID logo; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium; Diaz-Ordaz, KarlaORCID logo; Keogh, RuthORCID logo; Eggo, Rosalind MORCID logo; Funk, SebastianORCID logo; Jit, MarkORCID logo; Atkins, Katherine EORCID logo; and Edmunds, W JohnORCID logo (2021) Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science (New York, N.Y.), 372 (6538). 149-+. ISSN 0036-8075 DOI: 10.1126/science.abg3055
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A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.


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