Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.
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Sam
Abbott
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Rosanna C
Barnard
;
Christopher I
Jarvis
;
Adam J
Kucharski
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James D
Munday
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Carl AB
Pearson
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Timothy W
Russell
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Damien C
Tully
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Alex D
Washburne
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+15 more...
Tom
Wenseleers
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Amy
Gimma
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William
Waites
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Kerry LM
Wong
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Kevin
van Zandvoort
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Justin D
Silverman
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CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
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COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium
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Karla
Diaz-Ordaz
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Ruth
Keogh
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Rosalind M
Eggo
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Sebastian
Funk
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Mark
Jit
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Katherine E
Atkins
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W John
Edmunds
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(2021)
Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.
Science (New York, N.Y.), 372 (6538).
149-+.
ISSN 0036-8075
DOI: 10.1126/science.abg3055
A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.
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