Pillai, Alexander N; Toh, Kok Ben; Perdomo, Dianela; Bhargava, Sanjana; Stoltzfus, Arlin; Longini, Ira M; Pearson, Carl AB; Hladish, Thomas J; (2024) Agent-based modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Florida. Epidemics, 47. p. 100774. ISSN 1755-4365 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100774

Sherratt, Katharine; Carnegie, Anna C; Kucharski, Adam; Cori, Anne; Pearson, Carl AB; Jarvis, Christopher I; Overton, Christopher; Weston, Dale; Hill, Edward M; Knock, Edward; +17 more... Fearon, Elizabeth; Nightingale, Emily; Hellewell, Joel; Edmunds, W John; Villabona Arenas, Julián; Prem, Kiesha; Pi, Li; Baguelin, Marc; Kendall, Michelle; Ferguson, Neil; Davies, Nicholas; Eggo, Rosalind M; van Elsland, Sabine; Russell, Timothy; Funk, Sebastian; Liu, Yang; Abbott, Sam; (2024) Improving modelling for epidemic responses: reflections from members of the UK infectious disease modelling community on their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic. Wellcome open research, 9. 12-. ISSN 2398-502X DOI: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.19601.1

Bonnet, Gabrielle; Pearson, Carl AB; Torres-Rueda, Sergio; Ruiz, Francis; Lines, Jo; Jit, Mark; Vassall, Anna; Sweeney, Sedona; (2023) A Scoping Review and Taxonomy of Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Models of COVID-19. Value in health, 27 (1). pp. 104-116. ISSN 1098-3015 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2023.10.008

Liu, Yang; Procter, Simon R; Pearson, Carl AB; Montero, Andrés Madriz; Torres-Rueda, Sergio; Asfaw, Elias; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Drake, Tom; Bergren, Eleanor; Eggo, Rosalind M; +5 more... Ruiz, Francis; Ndembi, Nicaise; Nonvignon, Justice; Jit, Mark; Vassall, Anna; (2023) Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 vaccination programme's timing and speed on health benefits, cost-effectiveness, and relative affordability in 27 African countries. BMC medicine, 21 (1). 85-. ISSN 1741-7015 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-023-02784-z

Murayama, Hiroaki; Pearson, Carl AB; Abbott, Sam; Miura, Fuminari; Jung, Sung-Mok; Fearon, Elizabeth; Funk, Sebastian; Endo, Akira; (2023) Accumulation of Immunity in Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Shapes Mpox Outbreak Sizes. The Journal of infectious diseases, 229 (1). pp. 59-63. ISSN 0022-1899 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiad254

Ruiz, Francis J; Torres-Rueda, Sergio; Pearson, Carl AB; Bergren, Eleanor; Okeke, Chinyere; Procter, Simon R; Madriz-Montero, Andres; Jit, Mark; Vassall, Anna; Uzochukwu, Benjamin SC; (2023) What, how and who: Cost-effectiveness analyses of COVID-19 vaccination to inform key policies in Nigeria. PLOS global public health, 3 (3). e0001693-. ISSN 2767-3375 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001693

Shea, Katriona; Borchering, Rebecca K; Probert, William JM; Howerton, Emily; Bogich, Tiffany L; Li, Shou-Li; van Panhuis, Willem G; Viboud, Cecile; Aguás, Ricardo; Belov, Artur A; +68 more... Bhargava, Sanjana H; Cavany, Sean M; Chang, Joshua C; Chen, Cynthia; Chen, Jinghui; Chen, Shi; Chen, YangQuan; Childs, Lauren M; Chow, Carson C; Crooker, Isabel; Del Valle, Sara Y; España, Guido; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Gerkin, Richard C; Germann, Timothy C; Gu, Quanquan; Guan, Xiangyang; Guo, Lihong; Hart, Gregory R; Hladish, Thomas J; Hupert, Nathaniel; Janies, Daniel; Kerr, Cliff C; Klein, Daniel J; Klein, Eili Y; Lin, Gary; Manore, Carrie; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Mittler, John E; Mu, Kunpeng; Núñez, Rafael C; Oidtman, Rachel J; Pasco, Remy; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Paul, Rajib; Pearson, Carl AB; Perdomo, Dianela R; Perkins, T Alex; Pierce, Kelly; Pillai, Alexander N; Rael, Rosalyn Cherie; Rosenfeld, Katherine; Ross, Chrysm Watson; Spencer, Julie A; Stoltzfus, Arlin B; Toh, Kok Ben; Vattikuti, Shashaank; Vespignani, Alessandro; Wang, Lingxiao; White, Lisa J; Xu, Pan; Yang, Yupeng; Yogurtcu, Osman N; Zhang, Weitong; Zhao, Yanting; Zou, Difan; Ferrari, Matthew J; Pannell, David; Tildesley, Michael J; Seifarth, Jack; Johnson, Elyse; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Johansson, Michael A; Slayton, Rachel B; Levander, John D; Stazer, Jeff; Kerr, Jessica; Runge, Michael C; (2023) Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120 (18). e2207537120-. ISSN 0027-8424 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2207537120

Endo, Akira; Murayama, Hiroaki; Abbott, Sam; Ratnayake, Ruwan; Pearson, Carl AB; Edmunds, W John; Fearon, Elizabeth; Funk, Sebastian; (2022) Heavy-tailed sexual contact networks and monkeypox epidemiology in the global outbreak, 2022. Science (New York, N.Y.), 378 (6615). pp. 90-94. ISSN 0036-8075 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.add4507

Liu, Yang; Pearson, Carl AB; Sandmann, Frank G; Barnard, Rosanna C; Kim, Jong-Hoon; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Flasche, Stefan; Jit, Mark; Abbas, Kaja; (2022) Dosing interval strategies for two-dose COVID-19 vaccination in 13 middle-income countries of Europe: Health impact modelling and benefit-risk analysis. The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, 17. 100381-. ISSN 2666-7762 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100381

Liu, Yang; Sandmann, Frank G; Barnard, Rosanna C; Pearson, Carl AB; Pastore, Roberta; Pebody, Richard; Flasche, Stefan; Jit, Mark; (2022) Optimising health and economic impacts of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation strategies in the WHO European Region: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet regional health. Europe, 12. 100267-. ISSN 2666-7762 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100267

Vallejo, Celeste; Pearson, Carl AB; Koopman, James S; Hladish, Thomas J; (2022) Effect of Population Partitioning on the Probability of Silent Circulation of Poliovirus. Bulletin of mathematical biology, 84 (6). 62-. ISSN 0092-8240 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01014-6

Clifford, Samuel; Quilty, Billy J; Russell, Timothy W; Liu, Yang; Chan, Yung-Wai D; Pearson, Carl AB; Eggo, Rosalind M; Endo, Akira; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Flasche, Stefan; +2 more... Edmunds, W John; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID); CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID); (2021) Strategies to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation from international travellers: modelling estimations for the United Kingdom, July 2020. Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 26 (39). ISSN 1025-496X DOI: https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.39.2001440

Davies, Nicholas G; Abbott, Sam; Barnard, Rosanna C; Jarvis, Christopher I; Kucharski, Adam J; Munday, James D; Pearson, Carl AB; Russell, Timothy W; Tully, Damien C; Washburne, Alex D; +15 more... Wenseleers, Tom; Gimma, Amy; Waites, William; Wong, Kerry LM; van Zandvoort, Kevin; Silverman, Justin D; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium; Diaz-Ordaz, Karla; Keogh, Ruth; Eggo, Rosalind M; Funk, Sebastian; Jit, Mark; Atkins, Katherine E; Edmunds, W John; (2021) Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science (New York, N.Y.), 372 (6538). 149-+. ISSN 0036-8075 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055

Gibbs, Hamish; Nightingale, Emily; Liu, Yang; Cheshire, James; Danon, Leon; Smeeth, Liam; Pearson, Carl AB; Grundy, Chris; LSHTM CMMID COVID-19 working group; Kucharski, Adam J; +1 more... Eggo, Rosalind M; LSHTM CMMID COVID-19 working group; (2021) Detecting behavioural changes in human movement to inform the spatial scale of interventions against COVID-19. PLoS computational biology, 17 (7). e1009162-. ISSN 1553-734X DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009162

Liu, Yang; Sandmann, Frank G; Barnard, Rosanna C; Pearson, Carl AB; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Pastore, Roberta; Pebody, Richard; Flasche, Stefan; Jit, Mark; (2021) Optimising health and economic impacts of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation strategies in the WHO European Region. medRxiv. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.09.21260272

Munday, James D; Sherratt, Katharine; Meakin, Sophie; Endo, Akira; Pearson, Carl AB; Hellewell, Joel; Abbott, Sam; Bosse, Nikos I; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Atkins, Katherine E; +4 more... Wallinga, Jacco; Edmunds, W John; van Hoek, Albert Jan; Funk, Sebastian; (2021) Implications of the school-household network structure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission under school reopening strategies in England. Nature communications, 12 (1). 1942-. ISSN 2041-1723 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22213-0

Pearson, Carl AB; Bozzani, Fiammetta; Procter, Simon R; Davies, Nicholas G; Huda, Maryam; Jensen, Henning Tarp; Keogh-Brown, Marcus; Khalid, Muhammad; Sweeney, Sedona; Torres-Rueda, Sergio; +5 more... CHiL COVID-19 Working Group; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Eggo, Rosalind M; Vassall, Anna; Jit, Mark; CHiL COVID-19 Working Group, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; (2021) COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness. PLoS medicine, 18 (10). e1003815-. ISSN 1549-1277 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003815

Pearson, Carl AB; Clifford, Sam; Pulliam, Juliet RC; Eggo, Rosalind M; (2021) Pre-vaccination testing could expand coverage of two-dose COVID vaccines. Wellcome Open Research, 6. p. 105. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16835.1

Pearson, Carl AB; Edmunds, W John; Hladish, Thomas J; Eggo, Rosalind M; (2021) Potential test-negative design study bias in outbreak settings: application to Ebola vaccination in Democratic Republic of Congo. International journal of epidemiology, 51 (1). pp. 265-278. ISSN 0300-5771 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab172

Torres-Rueda, Sergio; Sweeney, Sedona; Bozzani, Fiammetta; Naylor, Nichola R; Baker, Tim; Pearson, Carl; Eggo, Rosalind; Procter, Simon R; Davies, Nicholas; Quaife, Matthew; +11 more... Kitson, Nichola; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Jensen, Henning Tarp; Saadi, Nuru; Khan, Mishal; Huda, Maryam; Kairu, Angela; Zaidi, Raza; Barasa, Edwine; Jit, Mark; Vassall, Anna; (2021) Stark choices: exploring health sector costs of policy responses to COVID-19 in low-income and middle-income countries. BMJ Global Health, 6 (12). e005759-e005759. ISSN 2059-7908 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005759

Abbott, Sam; Hellewell, Joel; Thompson, Robin N; Sherratt, Katharine; Gibbs, Hamish P; Bosse, Nikos I; Munday, James D; Meakin, Sophie; Doughty, Emma L; Chun, June Young; +11 more... Chan, Yung-Wai Desmond; Finger, Flavio; Campbell, Paul; Endo, Akira; Pearson, Carl AB; Gimma, Amy; Russell, Tim; Flasche, Stefan; Kucharski, Adam J; Eggo, Rosalind M; Funk, Sebastian; (2020) Estimating the time-varying reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 using national and subnational case counts. Wellcome Open Research, 5. p. 112. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16006.1

Abbott, Sam; Hellewell, Joel; Thompson, Robin N; Sherratt, Katharine; Gibbs, Hamish P; Bosse, Nikos I; Munday, James D; Meakin, Sophie; Doughty, Emma L; Chun, June Young; +11 more... Chan, Yung-Wai Desmond; Finger, Flavio; Campbell, Paul; Endo, Akira; Pearson, Carl AB; Gimma, Amy; Russell, Tim; Flasche, Stefan; Kucharski, Adam J; Eggo, Rosalind M; Funk, Sebastian; (2020) Estimating the time-varying reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 using national and subnational case counts. Wellcome Open Research, 5. p. 112. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16006.2

Clifford, Samuel; Pearson, Carl AB; Klepac, Petra; Van Zandvoort, Kevin; Quilty, Billy J; CMMID COVID-19 working group; Eggo, Rosalind M; Flasche, Stefan; (2020) Effectiveness of interventions targeting air travellers for delaying local outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2. JOURNAL OF TRAVEL MEDICINE, 27 (5). taaa068-. ISSN 1195-1982 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa068

Emery, Jon C; Russell, Timothy W; Liu, Yang; Hellewell, Joel; Pearson, Carl Ab; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Knight, Gwenan M; Eggo, Rosalind M; Kucharski, Adam J; Funk, Sebastian; +2 more... Flasche, Stefan; Houben, Rein Mgj; (2020) The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. eLife, 9. e58699-. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.58699

Gibbs, Hamish; Liu, Yang; Pearson, Carl AB; Jarvis, Christopher I; Grundy, Chris; Quilty, Billy J; Diamond, Charlie; LSHTM CMMID COVID-19 working group; Eggo, Rosalind M; (2020) Changing travel patterns in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 11 (1). 5012-. ISSN 2041-1723 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18783-0

Hladish, Thomas J; Pearson, Carl AB; Toh, Kok Ben; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Manrique-Saide, Pablo; Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M; (2020) Designing effective control of dengue with combined interventions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117 (6). pp. 3319-3325. ISSN 0027-8424 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903496117

Jombart, Thibaut; van Zandvoort, Kevin; Russell, Timothy W; Jarvis, Christopher I; Gimma, Amy; Abbott, Sam; Clifford, Sam; Funk, Sebastian; Gibbs, Hamish; Liu, Yang; +6 more... Pearson, Carl AB; Bosse, Nikos I; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV; Eggo, Rosalind M; Kucharski, Adam J; Edmunds, W John; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV; (2020) Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. Wellcome Open Res, 5. 78-. ISSN 2398-502X DOI: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1

Jombart, Thibaut; van Zandvoort, Kevin; Russell, Timothy W; Jarvis, Christopher I; Gimma, Amy; Abbott, Sam; Clifford, Sam; Funk, Sebastian; Gibbs, Hamish; Liu, Yang; +6 more... Pearson, Carl AB; Bosse, Nikos I; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV; Eggo, Rosalind M; Kucharski, Adam J; Edmunds, W John; (2020) Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. medRxiv. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033761

Pearson, Carl Ab; Van Schalkwyk, Cari; Foss, Anna M; O'Reilly, Kathleen M; SACEMA Modelling and Analysis Response Team; CMMID COVID-19 working group; Pulliam, Juliet Rc; (2020) Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020. Eurosurveillance, 25 (18). pp. 19-24. ISSN 1560-7917 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000543

Quilty, Billy J; Diamond, Charlie; Liu, Yang; Gibbs, Hamish; Russell, Timothy W; Jarvis, Christopher I; Prem, Kiesha; Pearson, Carl AB; Clifford, Samuel; Flasche, Stefan; +4 more... CMMID COVID-19 working group; Klepac, Petra; Eggo, Rosalind M; Jit, Mark; (2020) The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study. BMC medicine, 18 (1). 259-. ISSN 1741-7015 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01712-9

Rees, Eleanor M; Nightingale, Emily S; Jafari, Yalda; Waterlow, Naomi; Clifford, Samuel; Pearson, Carl AB; Jombert, Thibaut; Procter, Simon R; Knight, Gwenan M; (2020) COVID-19 length of hospital stay: a systematic review and data synthesis. BMC medicine, 18 (270). ISSN 1741-7015 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.30.20084780

Russell, Timothy W; Golding, Nick; Hellewell, Joel; Abbott, Sam; Wright, Lawrence; Pearson, Carl AB; Zandvoort, Kevin van; Jarvis, Christopher I; Gibbs, Hamish; Liu, Yang; +3 more... Eggo, Rosalind M; Edmunds, W John; Kucharski, Adam J; (2020) Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.07.20148460

Russell, Timothy W; Golding, Nick; Hellewell, Joel; Abbott, Sam; Wright, Lawrence; Pearson, Carl AB; van Zandvoort, Kevin; Jarvis, Christopher I; Gibbs, Hamish; Liu, Yang; +4 more... Eggo, Rosalind M; Edmunds, W John; Kucharski, Adam J; CMMID COVID-19 working group; (2020) Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections. BMC medicine, 18 (1). 332-. ISSN 1741-7015 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01790-9

Thompson, Robin N; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Isham, Valerie; Arribas-Bel, Daniel; Ashby, Ben; Britton, Tom; Challenor, Peter; Chappell, Lauren HK; Clapham, Hannah; Cunniffe, Nik J; +33 more... Dawid, A Philip; Donnelly, Christl A; Eggo, Rosalind M; Funk, Sebastian; Gilbert, Nigel; Glendinning, Paul; Gog, Julia R; Hart, William S; Heesterbeek, Hans; House, Thomas; Keeling, Matt; Kiss, István Z; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; Lloyd, Alun L; McBryde, Emma S; McCaw, James M; McKinley, Trevelyan J; Miller, Joel C; Morris, Martina; O'Neill, Philip D; Parag, Kris V; Pearson, Carl AB; Pellis, Lorenzo; Pulliam, Juliet RC; Ross, Joshua V; Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia; Silverman, Bernard W; Struchiner, Claudio J; Tildesley, Michael J; Trapman, Pieter; Webb, Cerian R; Mollison, Denis; Restif, Olivier; (2020) Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies. PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 287 (1932). 20201405-. ISSN 0962-8452 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1405

van Zandvoort, Kevin; Jarvis, Christopher I; Pearson, Carl AB; Davies, Nicholas G; CMMID COVID-19 working group; Ratnayake, Ruwan; Russell, Timothy W; Kucharski, Adam J; Jit, Mark; Flasche, Stefan; +2 more... Eggo, Rosalind M; Checchi, Francesco; (2020) Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study. BMC Medicine, 18 (1). 324-. ISSN 1741-7015 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01789-2

Pearson, Carl AB; Abbas, Kaja M; Clifford, Samuel; Flasche, Stefan; Hladish, Thomas J; (2019) Serostatus testing and dengue vaccine cost-benefit thresholds. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 16 (157). 20190234-. ISSN 1742-5689 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2019.0234

Vallejo, Celeste; Pearson, Carl AB; Koopman, James; Hladish, Thomas J; (2019) Evaluating the probability of silent circulation of polio in small populations using the silent circulation statistic. Infectious Disease Modelling, 4. pp. 239-250. ISSN 2468-0427 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.06.003

Hladish, Thomas J; Pearson, Carl AB; Patricia Rojas, Diana; Gomez-Dantes, Hector; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M; Longini, Ira M; (2018) Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 12 (6). e0006570-. ISSN 1935-2727 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006570

Flasche, Stefan; Jit, Mark; Rodríguez-Barraquer, Isabel; Coudeville, Laurent; Recker, Mario; Koelle, Katia; Milne, George; Hladish, Thomas J; Perkins, T Alex; Cummings, Derek AT; +11 more... Dorigatti, Ilaria; Laydon, Daniel J; España, Guido; Kelso, Joel; Longini, Ira; Lourenco, Jose; Pearson, Carl AB; Reiner, Robert C; Mier-Y-Terán-Romero, Luis; Vannice, Kirsten; Ferguson, Neil; (2016) The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study. PLoS medicine, 13 (11). e1002181-. ISSN 1549-1277 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002181

Hladish, Thomas J; Pearson, Carl AB; Chao, Dennis L; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Recchia, Gabriel L; Gómez-Dantés, Héctor; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Pulliam, Juliet RC; Longini, Ira M; (2016) Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico. PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, 10 (5). e0004661-. ISSN 1935-2735 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004661