Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.

Jombart, ThibautORCID logo; van Zandvoort, KevinORCID logo; Russell, Timothy WORCID logo; Jarvis, Christopher I; Gimma, Amy; Abbott, SamORCID logo; Clifford, SamORCID logo; Funk, SebastianORCID logo; Gibbs, HamishORCID logo; Liu, YangORCID logo; +6 more...Pearson, Carl ABORCID logo; Bosse, Nikos IORCID logo; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV; Eggo, Rosalind MORCID logo; Kucharski, Adam JORCID logo; and Edmunds, W JohnORCID logo Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV; (2020) Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. Wellcome Open Res, 5. 78-. ISSN 2398-502X DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1
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We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.


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