Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.

Jombart, ThibautORCID logo; van Zandvoort, KevinORCID logo; Russell, Timothy WORCID logo; Jarvis, Christopher IORCID logo; Gimma, AmyORCID logo; Abbott, SamORCID logo; Clifford, SamORCID logo; Funk, SebastianORCID logo; Gibbs, Hamish; Liu, YangORCID logo; +6 more...Pearson, Carl AB; Bosse, Nikos I; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV; Eggo, Rosalind MORCID logo; Kucharski, Adam JORCID logo; and Edmunds, W JohnORCID logo (2020) Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. Wellcome open research, 5. 78-. DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1
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We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.


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