Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.

Jombart, Thibaut; van Zandvoort, Kevin; Russell, Timothy W; Jarvis, Christopher I; Gimma, Amy; Abbott, Sam; Clifford, Sam; Funk, Sebastian; Gibbs, Hamish; Liu, Yang; +6 more... Pearson, Carl AB; Bosse, Nikos I; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV; Eggo, Rosalind M; Kucharski, Adam J; Edmunds, W John; (2020) Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. Wellcome open research, 5. 78-. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1

Abstract

We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.

Additional Information

Item Type	Article
Faculty and Department	Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Research Centre	Covid-19 Research Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
PubMed ID	32518842
Elements ID	148293