Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.
Thibaut
Jombart
;
Kevin
van Zandvoort
;
Timothy W
Russell
;
Christopher I
Jarvis
;
Amy
Gimma
;
Sam
Abbott
;
Sam
Clifford
;
Sebastian
Funk
;
Hamish
Gibbs
;
Yang
Liu
;
+6 more...
Carl AB
Pearson
;
Nikos I
Bosse
;
Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV
;
Rosalind M
Eggo
;
Adam J
Kucharski
;
W John
Edmunds
;
(2020)
Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.
medRxiv.
DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.10.20033761
;
Kevin
van Zandvoort
;
Timothy W
Russell
;
Christopher I
Jarvis
;
Amy
Gimma
;
Sam
Abbott
;
Sam
Clifford
;
Sebastian
Funk
;
Hamish
Gibbs
;
Yang
Liu
;
+6 more...
Carl AB
Pearson
;
Nikos I
Bosse
;
Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COV
;
Rosalind M
Eggo
;
Adam J
Kucharski
;
W John
Edmunds
;
(2020)
Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.
medRxiv.
DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.10.20033761
We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.
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description - manuscript.1.2.docx
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subject - Submitted Version
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- Available under Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0
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