Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020.

Jit, Mark; Jombart, Thibaut; Nightingale, Emily S; Endo, Akira; Abbott, Sam; LSHTM Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases C; Edmunds, W John; (2020) Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020. EUROSURVEILLANCE, 25 (18). pp. 6-10. ISSN 1560-7917 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632

Abstract

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000-173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220-319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000-797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.

Additional Information

Item Type	Article
Faculty and Department	Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics (2023-) Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (-2023)
Research Centre	Covid-19 Research Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases ?? 181801 ??
PubMed ID	32400358
Elements ID	147736