How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.
Waterlow, Naomi R;
van Leeuwen, Edwin;
Davies, Nicholas G;
CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;
Flasche, Stefan;
Eggo, Rosalind M;
CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;
(2021)
How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118 (49).
e2108395118-.
ISSN 0027-8424
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108395118
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We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.