An imperfect tool: COVID-19 ‘test & trace’ success relies on minimising the impact of false negatives and continuation of physical distancing
Davis, Emma L;
Lucas, Tim CD;
Borlase, Anna;
Pollington, Timothy M;
Abbott, Sam;
Ayabina, Diepreye;
Crellen, Thomas;
Hellewell, Joel;
Pi, Li;
Medley, Graham F;
+2 more...Hollingsworth, T Déirdre;
Klepac, Petra;
(2020)
An imperfect tool: COVID-19 ‘test & trace’ success relies on minimising the impact of false negatives and continuation of physical distancing.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.09.20124008
(In Press)
Permanent Identifier
Use this Digital Object Identifier when citing or linking to this resource.
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The increasingly evident role of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission means testing is central to COVID-19 control, but test sensitivity estimates are low (around 65%). We extend an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Poor test sensitivity potentially reduces the efficacy of contact tracing, due to false-negative results impacting quarantine. We show that, counter-intuitively, faster testing could also reduce operational test sensitivity, exacerbating this effect. If sensitivity-based risks are mitigated, we find that contact tracing can facilitate control, but small changes in the population reproduction number (1·3 to 1·5) could impact contact tracing feasibility.</jats:p>