Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Davies, Nicholas G; Abbott, Sam; Barnard, Rosanna C; Jarvis, Christopher I; Kucharski, Adam J; Munday, James D; Pearson, Carl AB; Russell, Timothy W; Tully, Damien C; Washburne, Alex D; +13 more... Wenseleers, Tom; Gimma, Amy; Waites, William; Wong, Kerry LM; van Zandvoort, Kevin; Silverman, Justin D; Diaz-Ordaz, Karla; Keogh, Ruth; Eggo, Rosalind M; Funk, Sebastian; Jit, Mark; Atkins, Katherine E; Edmunds, W John; (2020) Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. MedRxiv. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248822

Abstract

<jats:p>A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and is rapidly spreading towards fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modelling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43–90% (range of 95% credible intervals 38–130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine roll-out, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths across England in 2021 will exceed those in 2020. Concerningly, VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59–74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.</jats:p>

Additional Information

Item Type	Article
Faculty and Department	Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Medical Statistics
Research Centre	Covid-19 Research
Elements ID	154920