Accumulation of Immunity in Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Shapes Mpox Outbreak Sizes.
Murayama, H
; Pearson, CA
; Abbott, S
; Miura, F
; Jung, S
; Fearon, E
; Funk, S
; Endo, A
and
(2023)
Accumulation of Immunity in Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Shapes Mpox Outbreak Sizes.
The Journal of infectious diseases, 229 (1).
pp. 59-63.
ISSN 0022-1899
DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiad254
Many countries affected by the global outbreak of mpox in 2022 have observed a decline in cases. Our mathematical model accounting for heavy-tailed sexual partnership distributions suggests that mpox epidemics can hit the infection-derived herd immunity threshold and begin to decline, with <1% of sexually active men who have sex with men infected regardless of interventions or behavioral changes. We consistently found that many countries and US states experienced an epidemic peak, with cumulative cases of around 0.1% to 0.5% among men who have sex with men. The observed decline in cases may not necessarily be attributable to interventions or behavioral changes primarily.
Item Type | Article |
---|---|
Elements ID | 205589 |
Official URL | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiad254 |
Date Deposited | 16 Jul 2023 17:23 |
-
picture_as_pdf - Murayama-etal-2023-Accumulation-of-immunity-in-heavy.pdf
-
subject - Accepted Version
-
error - This is an author accepted manuscript version of an article accepted for publication, and following peer review. Please be aware that minor differences may exist between this version and the final version if you wish to cite from it.
-
- Available under Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Share this file
Downloads
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7219-5981
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0701-7860
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8057-8037
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8235-757X
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0787-4515
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5574-251X
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2842-3406
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6377-7296