Accumulation of Immunity in Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Shapes Mpox Outbreak Sizes.

Murayama, HORCID logo; Pearson, CAORCID logo; Abbott, SORCID logo; Miura, FORCID logo; Jung, SORCID logo; Fearon, EORCID logo; Funk, SORCID logo; Endo, AORCID logo and (2023) Accumulation of Immunity in Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Shapes Mpox Outbreak Sizes. The Journal of infectious diseases, 229 (1). pp. 59-63. ISSN 0022-1899 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiad254
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Many countries affected by the global outbreak of mpox in 2022 have observed a decline in cases. Our mathematical model accounting for heavy-tailed sexual partnership distributions suggests that mpox epidemics can hit the infection-derived herd immunity threshold and begin to decline, with <1% of sexually active men who have sex with men infected regardless of interventions or behavioral changes. We consistently found that many countries and US states experienced an epidemic peak, with cumulative cases of around 0.1% to 0.5% among men who have sex with men. The observed decline in cases may not necessarily be attributable to interventions or behavioral changes primarily.


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This is an author accepted manuscript version of an article accepted for publication, and following peer review. Please be aware that minor differences may exist between this version and the final version if you wish to cite from it.
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