Effect of Population Partitioning on the Probability of Silent Circulation of Poliovirus.
Polio can circulate unobserved in regions that are challenging to monitor. To assess the probability of silent circulation, simulation models can be used to understand transmission dynamics when detection is unreliable. Model assumptions, however, impact the estimated probability of silent circulation. Here, we examine the impact of having distinct populations, rather than a single well-mixed population, with a discrete-individual model including environmental surveillance. We show that partitioning a well-mixed population into networks of distinct communities may result in a higher probability of silent circulation as a result of the time it takes for the detection of a circulation event. Population structure should be considered when assessing polio control in a region with many loosely interacting communities.
Item Type | Article |
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Elements ID | 178283 |
Date Deposited | 26 Aug 2022 16:16 |
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picture_as_pdf - Effect-of-population-partitioning-on.pdf
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subject - Accepted Version
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error - This is an author accepted manuscript version of an article accepted for publication, and following peer review. Please be aware that minor differences may exist between this version and the final version if you wish to cite from it.
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- Available under Creative Commons: Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0