Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.

Davis, Emma L; Lucas, Tim CD; Borlase, Anna; Pollington, Timothy M; Abbott, Sam; Ayabina, Diepreye; Crellen, Thomas; Hellewell, Joel; Pi, Li; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; +3 more... Medley, Graham F; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Klepac, Petra; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; (2021) Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence. Nature communications, 12 (1). 5412-. ISSN 2041-1723 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5

Abstract

Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.

Additional Information

Item Type	Article
Faculty and Department	Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics (2023-) Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Global Health and Development Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (-2023)
Research Centre	Covid-19 Research TB Modelling Group Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
PubMed ID	34518525
Elements ID	166298