Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship

Russell, Timothy W; Hellewell, Joel; Jarvis, Christopher I; Van Zandvoort, Kevin; Abbott, Sam; Ratnayake, Ruwan; Flasche, Stefan; Eggo, Rosalind M; Edmunds, W John; Kucharski, Adam J; (2020) Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. BMJ global health. ISSN 2059-7908 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773

Abstract

Abstract Adjusting for delay from confirmation-to-death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.3% (0.75%–5.3%) and 1.2% (0.38–2.7%). Comparing deaths onboard with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates using China data, we estimate IFR and CFR in China to be 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2–1.2%) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.3–2.4%) respectively. Aim To estimate the infection and case fatality ratio of COVID-19, using data from passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise ship while correcting for delays between confirmation-and-death, and age-structure of the population.

Additional Information

Item Type	Article
Faculty and Department	Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics (2023-)
Research Centre	Covid-19 Research Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Centre for Epidemic Preparedness and Response
Elements ID	145572