Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship

Timothy W Russell ORCID logo ; Joel Hellewell ORCID logo ; Christopher I Jarvis ORCID logo ; Kevin Van Zandvoort ORCID logo ; Sam Abbott ORCID logo ; Ruwan Ratnayake ORCID logo ; Stefan Flasche ORCID logo ; Rosalind M Eggo ORCID logo ; W John Edmunds ORCID logo ; Adam J Kucharski ; (2020) Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. BMJ global health. ISSN 2059-7908 DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773
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Abstract

Adjusting for delay from confirmation-to-death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.3% (0.75%–5.3%) and 1.2% (0.38–2.7%). Comparing deaths onboard with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates using China data, we estimate IFR and CFR in China to be 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2–1.2%) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.3–2.4%) respectively.

Aim

To estimate the infection and case fatality ratio of COVID-19, using data from passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise ship while correcting for delays between confirmation-and-death, and age-structure of the population.


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