Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model
Andrianakis, Ioannis;
McCreesh, Nicky;
Vernon, Ian;
McKinley, Trevelyan J;
Oakley, Jeremy E;
Nsubuga, Rebecca N;
Goldstein, Michael;
White, Richard G;
(2017)
Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model.
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 5 (1).
pp. 694-719.
ISSN 2166-2525
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1137/16m1093008
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History matching is a model (pre-)calibration method that has been applied to computer models from a wide range of scientific disciplines. In this work we apply history matching to an individual-based epidemiological model of HIV that has 96 input and 50 output parameters, a model of much larger scale than others that have been calibrated before using this or similar methods. Apart from demonstrating that history matching can analyze models of this complexity, a central contribution of this work is that the history match is carried out using linear regression, a statistical tool that is elementary and easier to implement than the Gaussian process-based emulators that have previously been used. Furthermore, we address a practical difficulty with history matching, namely, the sampling of tiny, nonimplausible spaces, by introducing a sampling algorithm adjusted to the specific needs of this method. The effectiveness and simplicity of the history matching method presented here shows that it is a useful tool for the calibration of computationally expensive, high dimensional, individual-based models.