Systematic review of mathematical models exploring the epidemiological impact of future TB vaccines.


Harris, RC; Sumner, T; Knight, GM; White, RG; (2016) Systematic review of mathematical models exploring the epidemiological impact of future TB vaccines. Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics, 12 (11). pp. 2813-2832. ISSN 2164-5515 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2016.1205769

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Abstract

: Mathematical models are useful for assessing the potential epidemiological impact of future tuberculosis (TB) vaccines. We conducted a systematic review of mathematical models estimating the epidemiological impact of future human TB vaccines. PubMed, Embase and WHO Global Health Library were searched, 3-stage manual sifted, and citation- and reference-tracked, identifying 23 papers. An adapted quality assessment tool was developed, with a resulting median study quality score of 20/28. The literature remains divided as to whether vaccines effective pre- or post-infection would provide greatest epidemiological impact. However, all-age or adolescent/adult targeted prevention of disease vaccines achieve greater and more rapid impact than neonatal vaccines. Mass campaigns alongside routine neonatal vaccination can have profound additional impact. Economic evaluations found TB vaccines overwhelmingly cost-effective, particularly when targeted to adolescents/adults. The variability of impact by setting, age group and vaccine characteristics must be accounted for in the development and delivery of future TB vaccines.<br/>

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Research Centre: TB Centre
PubMed ID: 27448625
Web of Science ID: 388736900026
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/2692177

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