Five challenges in modelling interacting strain dynamics.


Wikramaratna, PS; Kucharski, A; Gupta, S; Andreasen, V; McLean, AR; Gog, JR; (2014) Five challenges in modelling interacting strain dynamics. Epidemics, 10. pp. 31-4. ISSN 1755-4365 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.07.005

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Abstract

Population epidemiological models where hosts can be infected sequentially by different strains have the potential to help us understand many important diseases. Researchers have in recent years started to develop and use such models, but the extra layer of complexity from multiple strains brings with it many technical challenges. It is therefore hard to build models which have realistic assumptions yet are tractable. Here we outline some of the main challenges in this area. First we begin with the fundamental question of how to translate from complex small-scale dynamics within a host to useful population models. Next we consider the nature of so-called "strain space". We describe two key types of host heterogeneities, and explain how models could help generate a better understanding of their effects. Finally, for diseases with many strains, we consider the challenge of modelling how immunity accumulates over multiple exposures.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Research Centre: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
PubMed ID: 25843379
Web of Science ID: 352226900008
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/2145766

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