BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To create a risk factor model for posterior capsule rupture (PCR) during cataract surgery. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Eligible operations between 01/04/2016 and 31/03/2022 from centres supplying data to the UK national cataract audit with complete data including patients' gender and age at surgery, anterior chamber depth (ACD) measurement and preoperative visual acuity (VA) were included. A logistic regression model was fitted to identify risk factors and calculate their odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for PCR. RESULTS: This analysis included 961,208 cataract operations performed on 682,381 patients from 136 participating centres by 3198 surgeons. 9730 (1.01%) of surgeries were complicated by PCR. The median age was 75.7 and 76.7 years for first and second eye surgery respectively, and 5154 (53.0%) were female. The highest risk factors for PCR were less experienced trainee surgeon (OR 3.75, 95% CI 3.33-4.24, p < 0.001), pseudoexfoliation/phacodonesis (OR 3.47, 95% CI 3.05-3.94, p < 0.001), younger males (OR 3.05, 95% CI 2.23-4.16, p < 0.001) and brunescent/white/mature cataract (OR 2.41, 95% CI 2.24-2.60, p < 0.001). Other risk factors identified were glaucoma, worse preoperative VA, previous intravitreal therapy, high myopia, previous vitrectomy, systemic diabetes, diabetic retinopathy, amblyopia, older age, shallower ACD and inability to lie flat and cooperate. CONCLUSION: Various surgical, patient and ocular factors increase the risk of PCR during cataract surgery. This risk factor model permits estimation of individualised risks for patients and allows risk-adjustment for surgeons to evaluate their PCR rates based on case complexity.