CHALLENGES IN ESTIMATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF 2 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE BEYOND 6 MONTHS IN ENGLAND.

Horne, EM; Hulme, WJ; Keogh, RHORCID logo; Palmer, TM; Williamson, EJORCID logo; Parker, EPORCID logo; Walker, VM; Knight, R; Wei, Y; Taylor, K; +8 more...Fisher, L; Morley, J; Mehrkar, A; Dillingham, I; Bacon, S; Goldacre, BORCID logo; Sterne, JA; OpenSAFELY Collaborative, FT and (2023) CHALLENGES IN ESTIMATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF 2 DOSES OF COVID-19 VACCINE BEYOND 6 MONTHS IN ENGLAND. American journal of epidemiology, 193 (1). pp. 227-231. ISSN 0002-9262 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwad179
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Understanding how effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines changes over time and in response to new SARSCoV-2 variants is crucial to scheduling subsequent doses. A previous study quantified vaccine effectiveness (VE) over six consecutive 4-week periods from 2 to 26 weeks after second dose (1). Waning of hazard ratios (HRs) comparing vaccinated with unvaccinated individuals was approximately log-linear over time, and consistent across COVID-19-related outcomes and risk-based subgroups. To investigate waning beyond 26 weeks and in the omicron era, we extended follow-up to the earliest of 50 weeks after second dose or 31 March 2022.


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