Ali, M Sanni; Wit, Mariken DE; Chabata, Sungai T; Magutshwa, Sitholubuhle; Musemburi, Sithembile; Dirawo, Jeffrey; Rice, Brian; Platt, Lucy; Bansi-Matharu, Loveleen; Harriet, Jones; +9 more... Mharadze, Tendayi; Chiyaka, Tarisai; Mushati, Phillis; Mugurungi, Owen; Yekeye, Raymond; Mpofu, Amon; Phillips, Andrew N; Cowan, Frances M; Hargreaves, James R; (2022) Estimation of HIV incidence from analysis of HIV prevalence patterns among female sex workers in Zimbabwe. AIDS, 36 (8). pp. 1141-1150. ISSN 0269-9370 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000003198
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To estimate HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Zimbabwe: using HIV prevalence by age and number of years since started selling sex (YSSS). DESIGN: We pooled data from FSW aged 18-39 participating in respondent-driven sampling surveys conducted in Zimbabwe between 2011 and 2017. METHODS: For each year of age, we estimated: HIV prevalence ( Pt ) and the change in HIV prevalence from the previous age ( Pt - Pt -1 ). We then estimated the rate of new HIV infections during that year of age: It = Pt - Pt -1 /(1 - Pt -1 ), and calculated HIV incidence for 18-24 and 25-39 year-olds separately as the weighted average of It . We estimated HIV incidence for FSW 1-5 years and 6-15 years since first selling sex using the same approach, and compared HIV prevalence among FSW first selling sex at their current age with the general population. RESULTS: Among 9906 women, 50.2% were HIV positive. Based on HIV prevalence increases by age, we estimated an HIV incidence of 6.3/100 person-years at risk (pyar) (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.3, 7.6) among 18-24 year-olds, and 3.3/100 pyar (95% CI 1.3, 4.2) among 25-39 year-olds. Based on prevalence increases by YSSS, HIV incidence was 5.3/100 pyar (95% CI 4.3, 8.5) between 1 and 5 years since first selling sex, and 2.1/100 pyar (95% CI -1.3, 7.2) between 6 and 15 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis is consistent with very high HIV incidence among FSW in Zimbabwe, especially among those who are young and recently started selling sex. There is a critical need to engage young entrants into sex work in interventions that reduce their HIV risk.
Item Type | Article |
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Faculty and Department |
Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases > Dept of Disease Control Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Public Health, Environments and Society |
PubMed ID | 35170527 |
Elements ID | 170568 |
Official URL | http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/qad.0000000000003198 |
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