Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China

Bhatia, SORCID logo; Imai, NORCID logo; Cuomo-Dannenburg, GORCID logo; Baguelin, MORCID logo; Boonyasiri, A; Cori, A; Cucunubá, Z; Dorigatti, I; FitzJohn, R; Fu, HORCID logo; +17 more...Gaythorpe, K; Ghani, A; Hamlet, A; Hinsley, W; Laydon, DORCID logo; Nedjati-Gilani, G; Okell, LORCID logo; Riley, S; Thompson, H; van Elsland, SORCID logo; Volz, E; Wang, HORCID logo; Wang, Y; Whittaker, C; Xi, X; Donnelly, CAORCID logo; Ferguson, NM and (2021) Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China. Wellcome Open Research, 5. p. 143. DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15805.2
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<ns4:p><ns4:bold>Background:</ns4:bold> As of August 2021, every region of the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 196,000,000 cases worldwide.</ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Methods: </ns4:bold>We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries.</ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Results: </ns4:bold>Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that up to 70% (95% CI: 54% - 80%) of imported cases could remain undetected relative to the sensitivity of surveillance in Singapore. The percentage of undetected imported cases rises to 75% (95% CI 66% - 82%) when comparing to the surveillance sensitivity in multiple countries.</ns4:p><ns4:p> <ns4:bold>Conclusions: </ns4:bold>Our analysis shows that a large number of COVID-19 cases remain undetected across the world.<ns4:bold> </ns4:bold>These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.</ns4:p>


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