Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data
Ojal, John;
Brand, Samuel PC;
Were, Vincent;
Okiro, Emelda A;
Kombe, Ivy K;
Mburu, Caroline;
Aziza, Rabia;
Ogero, Morris;
Agweyu, Ambrose;
Warimwe, George M;
+16 more...Uyoga, Sophie;
Adetifa, Ifedayo MO;
Scott, J Anthony G;
Otieno, Edward;
Ochola-Oyier, Lynette I;
Agoti, Charles N;
Kasera, Kadondi;
Amoth, Patrick;
Mwangangi, Mercy;
Aman, Rashid;
Ng’ang’a, Wangari;
Tsofa, Benjamin;
Bejon, Philip;
Barasa, Edwine;
Keeling, Matt J;
Nokes, D James;
(2021)
Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data.
Wellcome Open Research, 6.
p. 127.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.1
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<ns4:p>Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.</ns4:p>
