Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States.

Mélodie Monod

; Alexandra Blenkinsop

; Xiaoyue Xi ; Daniel Hebert ; Sivan Bershan ; Simon Tietze ; Marc Baguelin

; Valerie C Bradley ; Yu Chen

; Helen Coupland

; +18 more... Sarah Filippi

; Jonathan Ish-Horowicz

; Martin McManus ; Thomas Mellan

; Axel Gandy

; Michael Hutchinson

; H Juliette T Unwin

; Sabine L van Elsland

; Michaela AC Vollmer

; Sebastian Weber ; Harrison Zhu ; Anne Bezancon ; Neil M Ferguson

; Swapnil Mishra

; Seth Flaxman

; Samir Bhatt

; Oliver Ratmann

; Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team ; Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team; (2021) Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States. Science (New York, N.Y.), 371 (6536). eabe8372-. ISSN 0036-8075 DOI: 10.1126/science.abe8372

Copy

After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.