Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States.
; Blenkinsop, Alexandra; Xi, Xiaoyue; Hebert, Daniel; Bershan, Sivan; Tietze, Simon; Baguelin, Marc; Bradley, Valerie C; Chen, Yu; Coupland, Helen; +18 more...Filippi, Sarah; Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan; McManus, Martin; Mellan, Thomas; Gandy, Axel; Hutchinson, Michael; Unwin, H Juliette T; van Elsland, Sabine L; Vollmer, Michaela AC; Weber, Sebastian; Zhu, Harrison; Bezancon, Anne; Ferguson, Neil M; Mishra, Swapnil; Flaxman, Seth; Bhatt, Samir; Ratmann, Oliver; and Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team;
(2021)
Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States.
Science (New York, N.Y.), 371 (6536).
eabe8372-.
ISSN 0036-8075
DOI: 10.1126/science.abe8372
After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.
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