Harris, Rebecca C; Sumner, Tom; Knight, Gwenan M; Zhang, Hui; White, Richard G; (2020) Potential impact of tuberculosis vaccines in China, South Africa, and India. Science Translational Medicine, 12 (564). eaax4607-eaax4607. ISSN 1946-6234 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/scitranslmed.aax4607
Permanent Identifier
Use this Digital Object Identifier when citing or linking to this resource.
Abstract
More effective tuberculosis vaccines are needed to help reach World Health Organization tuberculosis elimination goals. Insufficient evidence exists on the potential impact of future tuberculosis vaccines with varying characteristics and in different epidemiological settings. To inform vaccine development decision making, we modeled the impact of hypothetical tuberculosis vaccines in three high-burden countries. We calibrated Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) transmission models to age-stratified demographic and epidemiological data from China, South Africa, and India. We varied vaccine efficacy to prevent infection or disease, effective in persons M.tb uninfected or infected, and duration of protection. We modeled routine early-adolescent vaccination and 10-yearly mass campaigns from 2025. We estimated median percentage population-level tuberculosis incidence rate reduction (IRR) in 2050 compared to a no new vaccine scenario. In all settings, results suggested vaccines preventing disease in M.tb-infected populations would have greatest impact by 2050 (10-year, 70% efficacy against disease, IRR 51%, 52%, and 54% in China, South Africa, and India, respectively). Vaccines preventing reinfection delivered lower potential impact (IRR 1, 12, and 17%). Intermediate impact was predicted for vaccines effective only in uninfected populations, if preventing infection (IRR 21, 37, and 50%) or disease (IRR 19, 36, and 51%), with greater impact in higher-transmission settings. Tuberculosis vaccines have the potential to deliver substantial population-level impact. For prioritizing impact by 2050, vaccine development should focus on preventing disease in M.tb-infected populations. Preventing infection or disease in uninfected populations may be useful in higher transmission settings. As vaccine impact depended on epidemiology, different development strategies may be required.
Item Type | Article |
---|---|
Faculty and Department | Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics (2023-) |
Research Centre |
TB Modelling Group TB Centre Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Vaccine Centre |
PubMed ID | 33028709 |
Elements ID | 151638 |
Downloads
Filename: Harris-etal-2020_Potential_impact_of_tuberculosis_vaccines.pdf
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0
DownloadFilename: Fig3_remade.pdf
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0
DownloadFilename: Fig5_remade.pdf
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0
DownloadFilename: Fig2pdf.pdf
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0
DownloadFilename: Harris-etal-2020_Potential_impact_of_tuberculosis_vaccines_APP.pdf
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0
Download