The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa.

Sherrard-Smith, Ellie; Hogan, Alexandra B; Hamlet, Arran; Watson, Oliver J; Whittaker, Charlie; Winskill, Peter; Ali, Fatima; Mohammad, Audu B; Uhomoibhi, Perpetua; Maikore, Ibrahim; +19 more... Ogbulafor, Nnenna; Nikau, Jamilu; Kont, Mara D; Challenger, Joseph D; Verity, Robert; Lambert, Ben; Cairns, Matthew; Rao, Bhargavi; Baguelin, Marc; Whittles, Lilith K; Lees, John A; Bhatia, Sangeeta; Knock, Edward S; Okell, Lucy; Slater, Hannah C; Ghani, Azra C; Walker, Patrick GT; Okoko, Okefu Oyale; Churcher, Thomas S; (2020) The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa. NATURE MEDICINE, 26 (9). pp. 1411-1416. ISSN 1078-8956 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1025-y

Abstract

The burden of malaria is heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 are rising1. In response, countries are implementing societal measures aimed at curtailing transmission of SARS-CoV-22,3. Despite these measures, the COVID-19 epidemic could still result in millions of deaths as local health facilities become overwhelmed4. Advances in malaria control this century have been largely due to distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs)5, with many SSA countries having planned campaigns for 2020. In the present study, we use COVID-19 and malaria transmission models to estimate the impact of disruption of malaria prevention activities and other core health services under four different COVID-19 epidemic scenarios. If activities are halted, the malaria burden in 2020 could be more than double that of 2019. In Nigeria alone, reducing case management for 6 months and delaying LLIN campaigns could result in 81,000 (44,000-119,000) additional deaths. Mitigating these negative impacts is achievable, and LLIN distributions in particular should be prioritized alongside access to antimalarial treatments to prevent substantial malaria epidemics.

Additional Information

Item Type	Article
Faculty and Department	Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Global Health and Development Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Research Centre	Covid-19 Research Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
PubMed ID	32770167
Elements ID	150119