Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020.
Pearson, CA
; Van Schalkwyk, C; Foss, AM; O'Reilly, KM; SACEMA Modelling and Analysis Response Team; CMMID COVID-19 working group; Pulliam, JR and
(2020)
Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020.
Eurosurveillance, 25 (18).
pp. 19-24.
ISSN 1560-7917
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000543
; Van Schalkwyk, C; Foss, AM; O'Reilly, KM; SACEMA Modelling and Analysis Response Team; CMMID COVID-19 working group; Pulliam, JR and
(2020)
Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020.
Eurosurveillance, 25 (18).
pp. 19-24.
ISSN 1560-7917
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000543
For 45 African countries/territories already reporting COVID-19 cases before 23 March 2020, we estimate the dates of reporting 1,000 and 10,000 cases. Assuming early epidemic trends without interventions, all 45 were likely to exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10,000 a few weeks later.
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