The Early Transmission Dynamics of H1N1pdm Influenza in the United Kingdom.

Ghani, Azra; Baguelin, MarcORCID logo; Griffin, Jamie; Flasche, StefanORCID logo; van Hoek, Albert Jan; Cauchemez, Simon; Donnelly, Christl; Robertson, Chris; White, Michael; Truscott, James; +8 more...Fraser, Christophe; Garske, Tini; White, Peter; Leach, Steve; Hall, Ian; Jenkins, Helen; Ferguson, Neil; and Cooper, Ben (2009) The Early Transmission Dynamics of H1N1pdm Influenza in the United Kingdom. PLoS currents, 1 (JUN). RRN1130-. ISSN 2157-3999 DOI: 10.1371/currents.RRN1130
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We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).


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