Talmud, Philippa J; Cooper, Jackie A; Morris, Richard W; Dudbridge, Frank; Shah, Tina; Engmann, Jorgen; Dale, Caroline; White, Jon; McLachlan, Stela; Zabaneh, Delilah; +21 more... Wong, Andrew; Ong, Ken K; Gaunt, Tom; Holmes, Michael V; Lawlor, Debbie A; Richards, Marcus; Hardy, Rebecca; Kuh, Diana; Wareham, Nicholas; Langenberg, Claudia; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Wannamethee, S Goya; Strachan, Mark WJ; Kumari, Meena; Whittaker, John C; Drenos, Fotios; Kivimaki, Mika; Hingorani, Aroon D; Price, Jacqueline F; Humphries, Steve E; UCLEB Consortium; (2014) Sixty-five common genetic variants and prediction of type 2 diabetes. Diabetes, 64 (5). pp. 1830-1840. ISSN 0012-1797 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2337/db14-1504
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Abstract
We developed a 65 type 2 diabetes (T2D) variant-weighted gene score to examine the impact on T2D risk assessment in a U.K.-based consortium of prospective studies, with subjects initially free from T2D (N = 13,294; 37.3% women; mean age 58.5 [38-99] years). We compared the performance of the gene score with the phenotypically derived Framingham Offspring Study T2D risk model and then the two in combination. Over the median 10 years of follow-up, 804 participants developed T2D. The odds ratio for T2D (top vs. bottom quintiles of gene score) was 2.70 (95% CI 2.12-3.43). With a 10% false-positive rate, the genetic score alone detected 19.9% incident cases, the Framingham risk model 30.7%, and together 37.3%. The respective area under the receiver operator characteristic curves were 0.60 (95% CI 0.58-0.62), 0.75 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.77), and 0.76 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.78). The combined risk score net reclassification improvement (NRI) was 8.1% (5.0 to 11.2; P = 3.31 × 10(-7)). While BMI stratification into tertiles influenced the NRI (BMI ≤24.5 kg/m(2), 27.6% [95% CI 17.7-37.5], P = 4.82 × 10(-8); 24.5-27.5 kg/m(2), 11.6% [95% CI 5.8-17.4], P = 9.88 × 10(-5); >27.5 kg/m(2), 2.6% [95% CI -1.4 to 6.6], P = 0.20), age categories did not. The addition of the gene score to a phenotypic risk model leads to a potentially clinically important improvement in discrimination of incident T2D.
Item Type | Article |
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Faculty and Department | Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology |
PubMed ID | 25475436 |
ISI | 353431200038 |
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