Hansmann, Andreas; Schim van der Loeff, Maarten F; Kaye, Steve; Awasana, Akum Aveika; Sarge-Njie, Ramu; O'Donovan, Diarmuid; Ariyoshi, Koya; Alabi, Abraham; Milligan, Paul; Whittle, Hilton C; (2005) Baseline plasma viral load and CD4 cell percentage predict survival in HIV-1- and HIV-2-infected women in a community-based cohort in The Gambia. Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 38 (3). pp. 335-341. ISSN 1525-4135 https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/13823
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To estimate and compare the all-cause mortality rates among HIV-1-infected, HIV-2-infected, and uninfected women and to assess the predictive value of baseline plasma viral load (PVL) and CD4 cell percentage (CD4%) for mortality. DESIGN: Cohort study. METHODS: At presentation to antenatal clinics in The Gambia in 1993-1995, pregnant women were screened for antibodies to HIV-1 and HIV-2. Seropositive subjects and a similar number of seronegative controls were enrolled, and baseline PVL and CD4% were measured. Participants were visited regularly by field-workers until 18 months after delivery and again 4-7 years later. RESULTS: Thirty-two of 101 women infected with HIV-1, 23 of 243 infected with HIV-2, and 9 of 468 seronegative women died during a median follow-up of 6.9 years. The mortality rate was 56 deaths per 1000 person years of observation (pyo) for HIV-1-infected, 16 deaths per 1000 pyo for HIV-2-infected, and 3.1 deaths per 1000 pyo for HIV-uninfected women. After 8 years of follow-up, >50% of HIV-1-infected women were still alive. In multivariate analysis, a 1-log increase of HIV-1 PVL was associated with a 1.8-fold higher rate of mortality (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9-3.4). In HIV-2 infection, women with a high PVL (>10,000 copies/mL) had an 8.7-fold (95% CI, 2.8-28) higher rate of mortality than did those with a low PVL (<1000 copies/mL). A 10% decrease in CD4% was associated with higher mortality rates among HIV-1-infected (1.6-fold; 95% CI, 1.1-2.3) and HIV-2-infected (1.5-fold; 95% CI, 1.0-2.3) subjects. DISCUSSION: Survival of HIV-1-infected women in The Gambia is similar to that in industrialized countries before the introduction of antiretroviral treatment. Survival of HIV-2-infected women is much better. However, women with high PVLs die as quickly as their HIV-1-infected counterparts.
Item Type | Article |
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Keywords | HIV-2, mortality, viral load, CD4, Africa, women, natural, history, HIV-1, Hiv-1 infection, guinea-bissau, antiretroviral therapy, lymphocyte counts, west-africa, rna levels, mortality, virus, progression, fertility |
Faculty and Department | Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology |
Research Centre | Tropical Epidemiology Group |
PubMed ID | 15735454 |
ISI | 227408100015 |