Breast cancer mortality in Russia and Ukraine 1963-2002: an age-period-cohort analysis.


Hirte, L; Nolte, E; Bain, C; McKee, M; (2007) Breast cancer mortality in Russia and Ukraine 1963-2002: an age-period-cohort analysis. International journal of epidemiology, 36 (4). pp. 900-6. ISSN 0300-5771 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dym066

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To determine the reasons for the steady increase in breast cancer mortality in Russia and Ukraine. METHODS: Age-period-cohort analysis, supplemented by analysis of historical fertility trends. RESULTS: Mortality from breast cancer has risen steadily in both countries over the past 40 years, although faster in Russia than in Ukraine. There are strong birth cohort effects, which are consistent with known changes in fertility. Death rates were highest among those born in the first half of the 20th century, declining among those born after the 1950s. There has been a decline in mortality among younger women since the mid 1990s, which may reflect improvements in treatment. CONCLUSION: The increase in breast cancer mortality in Russia and Ukraine can largely be explained by known changes in fertility, while recent changes may reflect changes in treatment. Observed trends suggest that death rates from female breast cancer in the two countries are likely to stabilize or even decline in the future.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Health Services Research and Policy
Research Centre: ECOHOST - The Centre for Health and Social Change
Centre for Global Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)
PubMed ID: 17510071
Web of Science ID: 250050300035
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/9924

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