Behaviour change and competitive exclusion can explain the diverging HIV-1 and HIV-2 prevalence trends in Guinea-Bissau.


Schmidt, WP; Van Der Loeff, MS; Aaby, P; Whittle, H; Bakker, R; Buckner, M; Dias, F; White, RG; (2008) Behaviour change and competitive exclusion can explain the diverging HIV-1 and HIV-2 prevalence trends in Guinea-Bissau. Epidemiology and infection, 136 (4). pp. 551-61. ISSN 0950-2688 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268807008758

[img]
Preview
Text - Published Version
License: Copyright the publishers

Download (138Kb) | Preview

Abstract

The aim of this study was to determine whether a temporary rise in sexual risk behaviour during war in Guinea-Bissau could explain the observed trends in HIV-1 and HIV-2 prevalence, and to explore the possible contribution of competitive elimination of HIV-2 by HIV-1. A simulation model of the heterosexual transmission of sexually transmitted infections was parameterized using demographic, behavioural and epidemiological data from rural Guinea-Bissau, and fitted to the observed HIV-1 and HIV-2 trends with and without a historic rise in risk behaviour. The observed trends could only be simulated by assuming a temporary rise in risk behaviour. Around 30% of the projected decline in HIV-2 prevalence from a peak of 8.7% to 4.3% in 2010 was due to competitive elimination by HIV-1. Importantly for public health, HIV-1 prevalence was predicted to continue increasing and to become the dominant HIV type by 2010. Data collection is required to validate this prediction.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases > Dept of Disease Control
PubMed ID: 17559692
Web of Science ID: 259337200018
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/9812

Statistics


Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads since deposit
186Downloads
277Hits
Accesses by country - last 12 months
Accesses by referrer - last 12 months
Impact and interest
Additional statistics for this record are available via IRStats2

Actions (login required)

Edit Item Edit Item