Seasonal forecasting and health impact models: challenges and opportunities.


Ballester, J; Lowe, R; Diggle, PJ; Rodó, X; (2016) Seasonal forecasting and health impact models: challenges and opportunities. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1382 (1). pp. 8-20. ISSN 0077-8923 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13129

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Abstract

: After several decades of intensive research, steady improvements in understanding and modeling the climate system have led to the development of the first generation of operational health early warning systems in the era of climate services. These schemes are based on collaborations across scientific disciplines, bringing together real-time climate and health data collection, state-of-the-art seasonal climate predictions, epidemiological impact models based on historical data, and an understanding of end user and stakeholder needs. In this review, we discuss the challenges and opportunities of this complex, multidisciplinary collaboration, with a focus on the factors limiting seasonal forecasting as a source of predictability for climate impact models.<br/>

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
PubMed ID: 27428726
Web of Science ID: 391044200002
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/3515654

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