Modelling circumcision and condom use as HIV/AIDS preventive control strategies


Mukandavire, Z; Bowa, K; Garira, W; (2007) Modelling circumcision and condom use as HIV/AIDS preventive control strategies. Mathematical and computer modelling, 46 (11-12). pp. 1353-1372. ISSN 0895-7177 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2007.01.001

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Abstract

We present a sex-structured model for heterosexual transmission of HIV/AIDS with explicit incubation period for modelling the effect of male circumcision as a preventive strategy for HIV/AIDS. The model is formulated using integro-differential equations, which are shown to be equivalent to delay differential equations with delay due to incubation period. The threshold and equilibria for the model are determined and stabilities are examined. We extend the model to incorporate the effects of condom use as another preventive strategy for controlling HIV/AIDS. Basic reproductive numbers for these models are computed and compared to assess the effectiveness of male circumcision and condom use in a community. The models are numerically analysed to assess the effects of the two preventive strategies on the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS. We conclude from the study that in the continuing absence of a preventive vaccine or cure for HIV/AIDS, male circumcision is a potential effective preventive strategy of HIV/AIDS to help communities slow the development of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and that it is even more effective if implemented jointly with condom use. The study provides insights into the possible community benefits that male circumcision and condom use as preventive strategies provide in slowing or curtailing the HIV/AIDS epidemic. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: HIV/AIDS model, heterosexual transmission, male circumcision, condom, use, basic reproductive number, sir epidemic model, immunodeficiency-virus type-1, hiv transmission, behavior-change, heterogeneous populations, genetic-heterogeneity, asymptotic properties, disease transmission, endemic equilibria, aids, epidemic
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Global Health and Development
Research Centre: Social and Mathematical Epidemiology (SaME)
SaME Modelling & Economics
Web of Science ID: 253488600001
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/333670

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