Accounting for the imperfect external validity of discrete choice experiments when predicting demand


Quaife, M; Terris-Prestholt, F; di Tanna, G; Vickerman, P; (2016) Accounting for the imperfect external validity of discrete choice experiments when predicting demand. Working Paper. UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

This paper proposes a transparent and data-driven method to strengthen predictions from discrete choice experiments (DCEs). Firstly, we conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarise how well DCE predictions reflect real-world choices. We find that DCEs have moderate accuracy when predicting health-related choices, with pooled sensitivity and specificity estimates of 88% (95% CI: 80%, 93%) and 0.31 (95% CI: 0.17, 0.50) respectively. Secondly, we set out a methodology to incorporate observed variation in prediction accuracy by adjusting DCE predictions to account for hypothetical bias. Thirdly, we present a case study applying the approach to a DCE predicting uptake for new HIV prevention products in South Africa.

Item Type: Monograph
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Global Health and Development
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Research Centre: SaME Modelling & Economics
Social and Mathematical Epidemiology (SaME)
Centre for Statistical Methodology
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/3029300

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