Low mortality risk but high loss to follow-up among patients in the Tanzanian national HIV care and treatment programme.
Somi, G;
Keogh, SC;
Todd, J;
Kilama, B;
Wringe, A;
van den Hombergh, J;
Malima, K;
Josiah, R;
Urassa, M;
Swai, R;
+1 more...Zaba, B;
(2012)
Low mortality risk but high loss to follow-up among patients in the Tanzanian national HIV care and treatment programme.
Tropical medicine & international health, 17 (4).
pp. 497-506.
ISSN 1360-2276
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3156.2011.02952.x
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UNLABELLED: OBJECTIVE To analyse survival and retention rates of the Tanzanian care and treatment programme. METHODS: Routine patient-level data were available from 101 of 909 clinics. Kaplan-Meier probabilities of mortality and attrition after ART initiation were calculated. Mortality risks were corrected for biases from loss to follow-up using Egger's nomogram. Smoothed hazard rates showed mortality and attrition peaks. Cox regression identified factors associated with death and attrition. Median CD4 counts were calculated at 6 month intervals. RESULTS: In 88,875 adults, 18% were lost to follow up 12 months after treatment initiation, and 36% after 36 months. Cumulative mortality reached 10% by 12 months (15% after correcting for loss to follow-up) and 14% by 36 months. Mortality and attrition rates both peaked within the first six months, and were higher among males, those under 45 kg and those with CD4 counts below 50 cells/μl at ART initiation. In the first year on ART, median CD4 count increased by 126 cells/μl, with similar changes in both sexes. CONCLUSION: Earlier diagnoses through expanded HIV testing may reduce high mortality and attrition rates if combined with better patient tracing systems. Further research is needed to explore reasons for attrition.