The role of public health models in policy making.
Naidoo, Bhashkaran;
(2000)
The role of public health models in policy making.
PhD thesis, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17037/PUBS.00768481
Permanent Identifier
Use this Digital Object Identifier when citing or linking to this resource.
Aims: To evaluate the use of public health models in policymaking, with regard to the
appropriateness and the practicalities of using such models for simulating health
interventions, and the application of the results of such modelling exercises to public health
policymaking.
Methods: In conjunction with policymakers, existing public health models were adapted
and used for simulating the effects of risk factor interventions on CHD in the England &
Wales population. These models were evaluated in terms of the limitations of the input
data, the assumptions underlying the methodology of the models, and problems in
translating interventions to the simulation environment.
Results: The simulation of CHD risk factor interventions using the Prevent and POHEM
models demonstrated how public health models can be used with policy makers to estimate
the future development of the health of populations; to evaluate alternative routes to
achieving health goals; to demonstrate the effect of targeting health interventions at
different sections of a population; to investigate the relationship between risk factors and
their linked diseases; and for demonstrating the possible effect of health interventions to
health practitioners.
Conclusions: Public health models can be used as policy tools, although ultimately they
may only inform policy, and not drive it, due to other factors which can influence the policy
agenda. Such models are complex instruments that require a long term commitment in
terms of funding, and they need to be developed by multidisciplinary teams, whose
expertise cover the areas of computing, epidemiology and health policy, but most
importantly policymakers should be involved with their development and use. Although
public health models may never be validated in terms of a "gold standard", they can be used
as policy tools as long as one is aware that they are unverified and that they yield results
of a hypothetical nature.