Counting GPs: A comparative repeat cross-sectional analysis of NHS general practitioners.

Aim To compare how National Health Service (NHS) general practice GP numbers and trends differ depending on how GPs are defined and data are analysed. Design and Setting Comparative repeat cross-sectional study, English NHS general practice. Method We compare NHS England's General Practice Workforce GP data quarterly between September 2015 and September 2024 by headcount and full-time-equivalent (FTE); with and without trainees; and relative to population size. Results Between September 2015 and September 2024, counting fully qualified GPs and GP trainees showed an 18% rise (41,193 to 48,758); whereas counting fully qualified FTE GPs alone showed a 5% reduction (29,364 to 27,966). Considering the growth of the registered population with an NHS general practice, the trend in GPs per capita varied between a 6% rise and a 15% reduction. The number of patients per GP between practices increased, with the 5th to 95th percentile range rising from 1,204-4,139 patients per fully qualified FTE GP in 2015 to 1,357-5,559 in 2024. Conclusion How GPs are defined, whether working hours are considered, and what measure of population size is used affects the interpretation of workforce trends. Using fully qualified FTE GPs per capita most closely reflects GP capacity, although there are limitations to current NHS data. Reporting the spread of patients per GP at practice level is necessary to capture the widening variation in GP provision in England.