Assessing early detection ability through spatial arrangements in environmental surveillance for poliovirus: A simulation-based study

Detecting the circulation of poliovirus in its early stages is paramount for swift public health action. While environmental surveillance (ES) is promising for enhancing early pathogen detection, the influence of spatial arrangement of ES sites on early detection remains unclear. Here, we aim to assess the early detection ability of ES by varying the number and location of ES sites using the simulation-based approach utilising geographic and demographic characteristics of South Africa as a case study of a non-endemic country. We developed a stochastic meta-population model among unimmunised children aged under 5 years old, assuming a single introduction of wild poliovirus serotype 1. We constructed six scenarios by combining three importation risk distributions (predicated on population size, approximations of international inbound travel volume and border crossing volume) with two ES site layout strategies (proportionate to population size and importation risks via land border crossings). We showed a modest number of strategically positioned ES sites can achieve a high early detection ability given assumed importation risks were geographically confined while dispersed importation risks reduced the effectiveness of ES. Our sensitivity analysis suggested that implementing the ES across large areas with low sampling frequency consistently resulted in a better early detection ability against various importation scenarios than implementing the ES in limited areas with high sampling frequency. Although we acknowledge the challenges of translating our simulated outcomes for real-world situations, our study has implications for deciding the scale and site selection of ES.