Characterizing trachoma elimination using serology
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Pearl Anne
Ante-Testard
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Sarah
Gwyn
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Seth
Blumberg
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Zeinab
Abdalla
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Kristen
Aiemjoy
;
Abdou
Amza
;
Solomon
Aragie
;
Ahmed M
Arzika
;
Marcel S
Awoussi
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+58 more...
Robin L
Bailey
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Robert
Butcher
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E Kelly
Callahan
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David
Chaima
;
Adisu Abebe
Dawed
;
Martha Idalí Saboyá
Díaz
;
Abou-Bakr Sidik
Domingo
;
Chris
Drakeley
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Belgesa E
Elshafie
;
Paul M
Emerson
;
Kimberly
Fornace
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Katherine
Gass
;
E Brook
Goodhew
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Jaouad
Hammou
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Emma M
Harding-Esch
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PJ
Hooper
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Boubacar
Kadri
;
Khumbo
Kalua
;
Sarjo
Kanyi
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Mabula
Kasubi
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Amir B
Kello
;
Robert
Ko
;
Patrick J
Lammie
;
Andres G
Lescano
;
Ramatou
Maliki
;
Michael Peter
Masika
;
Stephanie J
Migchelsen
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Beido
Nassirou
;
John M
Nesemann
;
Nishanth
Parameswaran
;
Willie
Pomat
;
Kristen K
Renneker
;
Chrissy
Roberts
;
Prudence
Rymil
;
Eshetu
Sata
;
Laura
Senyonjo
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Fikre
Seife
;
Ansumana
Sillah
;
Oliver
Sokana
;
Ariktha
Srivathsan
;
Zerihun
Tadesse
;
Fasihah
Taleo
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Emma Michelle
Taylor
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Rabebe
Tekeraoi
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Kwamy
Togbey
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Sheila K
West
;
Karana
Wickens
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Timothy
William
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Dionna M
Wittberg
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Dorothy
Yeboah-Manu
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Mohammed
Youbi
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Taye
Zeru
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Jeremy D
Keenan
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Thomas M
Lietman
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Anthony W
Solomon
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Scott D
Nash
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Diana L
Martin
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Benjamin F
Arnold
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(2025)
Characterizing trachoma elimination using serology.
Nature communications, 16 (1).
5545-.
ISSN 2041-1723
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-60581-z
Abstract
Trachoma is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Measurement of IgG antibodies in children is being considered for surveillance and programmatic decision-making. There are currently no programmatic guidelines based on serology, which represents a generalizable problem in seroepidemiology and disease elimination. Here, we collate Chlamydia trachomatis Pgp3 and CT694 IgG measurements from 48 serosurveys across Africa, Latin America, and the Pacific Islands (41,168 children ages 1–5 years) and propose a novel approach to estimate the probability that population C. trachomatis transmission is below or above levels requiring ongoing programmatic action. We determine that trachoma programs could halt control measures with >90% certainty when seroconversion rates (SCRs) are ≤2.2 per 100 person-years. Conversely, SCRs ≥4.5 per 100 person-years correspond with >90% certainty that further control interventions are needed. More extreme SCR thresholds correspond with higher levels of confidence of elimination (lower SCR) or ongoing action needed (higher SCR). This study demonstrates a robust approach for using trachoma serosurveys to guide elimination program decisions.
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