The disproportionate toll of the COVID-19 pandemic on social trust in low- and middle-income countries

Horizontal trust, which emerges from interdependence and shared values and norms among people of comparable social status, has been considered a crucial driver of individual health-protective behaviors and community resilience during health emergencies. However, recent data suggest the global decline in community resilience and its disproportionate impact on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). To assess this empirically, we examined the difference in the degree of social trust, which was measured as trust in neighbors, in 94 countries between 2018 and 2020. The study dataset combined a global survey from the Wellcome Global Monitor and other country-level measures from Google Mobility Reports, the Johns Hopkins University’s COVID-19 Tracker, the United Nations, and the World Bank. Using a multilevel regression with post-stratification weights, we estimated that the global average decline in trust in neighbors until the early stage of the pandemic was 6 percentage points. This impact was disproportionately harsher for LMICs, causing the most salient drop of 17 percentage points among low-income countries, however, it was comparable among high- and middle-upper income countries. This finding implies a hightened degree of global disparities in social capital between LMICs and wealthier countries since the pandemic and calls for international collaboration and support to help LMICs address these additional social and economic burdens.