Mortality and its predictors among people with dementia receiving psychiatric in-patient care

Although dementia is a terminal condition, palliation can be a challenge for clinical services. As dementia progresses, people frequently develop behavioural and psychological symptoms, sometimes so severe they require care in specialist dementia mental health wards. Although these are often a marker of late disease, there has been little research on the mortality of people admitted to these wards. Aims: We sought to describe the mortality of this group, both on-ward and after discharge, and to investigate clinical features predicting 1-year mortality. Method: First, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 576 people with dementia admitted to the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust dementia wards over an 8-year period. We attempted to identify predictors of mortality and build predictive machine learning models. To investigate deaths occurring during admission, we conducted a second analysis as a retrospective service evaluation involving mental health wards for people with dementia at four NHS trusts, including 1976 admissions over 7 years. Results: Survival following admission showed high variability, with a median of 1201 days (3.3 years). We were not able to accurately predict those at high risk of death from clinical data. We found that on-ward mortality remains rare but had increased from 3 deaths per year in 2013 to 13 in 2019. Conclusions: We suggest that arrangements to ensure effective palliation are available on all such wards. It is not clear where discussions around end-of-life care are best placed in the dementia pathway, but we suggest it should be considered at admission.