Timing of exposure assessment in studies on Group B streptococcus colonization and preterm birth.

BACKGROUND: Maternal colonization by the bacterium Group B streptococcus (GBS) increases risk of preterm birth, a condition that has an important impact on the health of children. However, research studies that quantify the effect of GBS colonization on preterm birth have reported variable estimates of the effect measure. METHODS: We performed a simulated cohort study of pregnant women to assess how timing of exposure (GBS colonization) assessment might influence results of studies that address this question. We used published data on longitudinal maternal GBS colonization and on the distribution of preterm births by gestational age to inform parameters used in the simulations. RESULTS: Assuming that the probability of preterm birth is higher during weeks when pregnant women are colonized by GBS, our results suggest that studies that assess exposure status early during pregnancy are more likely to estimate an association between GBS colonization and preterm birth that is closer to the null, compared with studies that assess exposure either at birth or during gestational weeks matched to preterm births. In sensitivity analyses assuming different colonization acquisition rates and diagnostic sensitivities, we observed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate quantification of the effect of maternal GBS colonization on the risk of preterm birth is necessary to understand the full health burden linked to this bacterium. In this study, we investigated one possible explanation, related to the timing of exposure assessment, for the variable findings of previous observational studies. Our findings will inform future research on this question.