State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States.

H Juliette T Unwin ORCID logo ; Swapnil Mishra ORCID logo ; Valerie C Bradley ; Axel Gandy ; Thomas A Mellan ; Helen Coupland ; Jonathan Ish-Horowicz ; Michaela AC Vollmer ; Charles Whittaker ORCID logo ; Sarah L Filippi ; +43 more... Xiaoyue Xi ; Mélodie Monod ; Oliver Ratmann ; Michael Hutchinson ; Fabian Valka ORCID logo ; Harrison Zhu ; Iwona Hawryluk ORCID logo ; Philip Milton ; Kylie EC Ainslie ; Marc Baguelin ; Adhiratha Boonyasiri ORCID logo ; Nick F Brazeau ; Lorenzo Cattarino ORCID logo ; Zulma Cucunuba ; Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg ORCID logo ; Ilaria Dorigatti ORCID logo ; Oliver D Eales ; Jeffrey W Eaton ORCID logo ; Sabine L van Elsland ; Richard G FitzJohn ; Katy AM Gaythorpe ; William Green ; Wes Hinsley ; Benjamin Jeffrey ; Edward Knock ; Daniel J Laydon ORCID logo ; John Lees ORCID logo ; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani ; Pierre Nouvellet ; Lucy Okell ORCID logo ; Kris V Parag ORCID logo ; Igor Siveroni ORCID logo ; Hayley A Thompson ; Patrick Walker ; Caroline E Walters ; Oliver J Watson ORCID logo ; Lilith K Whittles ; Azra C Ghani ; Neil M Ferguson ORCID logo ; Steven Riley ; Christl A Donnelly ORCID logo ; Samir Bhatt ORCID logo ; Seth Flaxman ORCID logo ; (2020) State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. Nature Communications, 11 (1). p. 6189. ISSN 2041-1723 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19652-6
Copy

As of 1st June 2020, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We use changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on the rate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate that Rt was only below one in 23 states on 1st June. We also estimate that 3.7% [3.4%-4.0%] of the total population of the US had been infected, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We demonstrate good 3 week model forecasts of deaths with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals.

picture_as_pdf

picture_as_pdf
Unwin-etal-2020-State-level-tracking-of-COVID-19-in-the-United-States.pdf
subject
Published Version
Available under Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0

View Download

Atom BibTeX OpenURL ContextObject in Span Multiline CSV OpenURL ContextObject Dublin Core Dublin Core MPEG-21 DIDL Data Cite XML EndNote HTML Citation JSON MARC (ASCII) MARC (ISO 2709) METS MODS RDF+N3 RDF+N-Triples RDF+XML RIOXX2 XML Reference Manager Refer Simple Metadata ASCII Citation EP3 XML
Export

Downloads