Feurer, Denise; Riffe, Tim; Kniffka, Maxi Stella; Acosta, Enrique; Armstrong, Ben; Mistry, Malcolm; Lowe, Rachel; Royé, Dominic; Hashizume, Masahiro; Madaniyazi, Lina; +40 more... Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Ragettli, Martina S; Lavigne, Eric; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Indermitte, Ene; Maasikmets, Marek; Dallavalle, Marco; Schneider, Alexandra; Honda, Yasushi; Alahmad, Barrak; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Carrasco, Gabriel; Holobâca, Iulian Horia; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Bell, Michelle L; Scovronick, Noah; Acquaotta, Fiorella; Coélho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Diaz, Magali Hurtado; Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth Félix; Michelozzi, Paola; Stafoggia, Massimo; de'Donato, Francesca; Rao, Shilpa; Di Ruscio, Francesco; Seposo, Xerxes; Guo, Yuming; Tong, Shilu; Masselot, Pierre; Gasparrini, Antonio; Sera, Francesco; (2024) Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysis. Environmental Epidemiology, 8 (6). e338-. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000338
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES: While COVID-19 continues to challenge the world, meteorological variables are thought to impact COVID-19 transmission. Previous studies showed evidence of negative associations between high temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. Our research aims to fill the knowledge gap on the modifying effect of vaccination rates and strains on the weather-COVID-19 association. METHODS: Our study included COVID-19 data from 439 cities in 22 countries spanning 3 February 2020 - 31 August 2022 and meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation). We used a two-stage time-series design to assess the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence. For the exposure modeling, we used distributed lag nonlinear models with a lag of up to 14 days. Finally, we pooled the estimates using a random effect meta-analytic model and tested vaccination rates and dominant strains as possible effect modifiers. RESULTS: Our results showed an association between temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. At 5 °C, the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence is 1.22-fold higher compared to a reference level at 17 °C. Correlated with temperature, we observed an inverse association for absolute humidity. We observed a tendency of increased risk on days without precipitation, but no association for relative humidity and solar radiation. No interaction between vaccination rates or strains on the weather-COVID-19 association was observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study strengthens previous evidence of a relationship of temperature and absolute humidity with COVID-19 incidence. Furthermore, no evidence was found that vaccinations and strains significantly modify the relationship between environmental factors and COVID-19 transmission.
Item Type | Article |
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Faculty and Department | Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Public Health, Environments and Society |
Research Centre | ?? 208138 ?? |
Elements ID | 232402 |
Official URL | http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/ee9.0000000000000338 |
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