Tobías, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Díaz, Magali Hurtado; Riojas, Horacio; Cifuentes, Luis Abdon; Royé, Dominic; Abrutzky, Rosana; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés; +8 more... Correa, Patricia Matus; Osorio, Samuel; Carrasco, Gabriel; Colistro, Valentina; Pascal, Mathilde; Chanel, Olivier; Madaniyazi, Lina; Gasparrini, Antonio; (2024) Mortality risk and economic loss attributable to cold and heat temperatures in Central and South America. Environmental Epidemiology. ISSN 2474-7882 https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/4673678 (In Press)
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Abstract
Background. We quantify the mortality burden and economic loss attributable to non-optimal temperatures for cold and heat in the Central and South American countries in the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network. Methods. We collected data for 66 locations from 13 countries in Central and South America to estimate location-specific temperature-mortality associations using time-series regression with distributed lag non-linear models. We calculated the attributable deaths for cold and heat as the 2.5th and 97.5th temperature percentiles, above and below the MMT, and used the value of a life year (VOLY) to estimate the economic loss of delayed deaths. Results. The mortality impact of cold varied widely by country, from 9.64% in Uruguay to 0.22% in Costa Rica. The heat-attributable fraction for mortality ranged from 1.41% in Paraguay to 0.01% in Ecuador. Locations in arid and temperate climatic zones showed higher cold-related mortality (5.10% and 5.29%, respectively) than those in tropical climates (1.71%). Arid and temperate climatic zones saw lower heat-attributable fraction (0.69% and 0.58%) than arid climatic zone (0.92%). Exposure to cold led to an annual economic loss of 0.6 million US dollars ($) in Costa Rica to $472.2 million in Argentina. In comparison, heat resulted in economic losses of $0.05 million in Ecuador to $90.6 million in Brazil. Conclusion. Most of the mortality burden for Central and South American countries is caused by cold compared to heat, generating annual economic losses of $2.1 billion and $290.7 million, respectively. Public health policies and adaptation measures in the Region should account for the health effects associated with non-optimal temperatures.
Item Type | Article |
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Faculty and Department | Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Public Health, Environments and Society |
Elements ID | 228245 |
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