Gasparrini, Antonio; N. Mistry, PhD, AF HEA., Malcolm; Armstrong, Corinne; Masselot, Pierre; (2024) Impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on temperature-related mortality. Environmental Epidemiology. ISSN 2474-7882 https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/4673675 (In Press)
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Abstract
Background: Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) can substantially affect climate through biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. Here, we examine the future temperature-mortality impact for two contrasting LULCC scenarios in a background climate of low greenhouse gas concentrations. The first LULCC scenario implies a globally sustainable land use and socioeconomic development (Sustainability). In the second LULCC scenario, sustainability is implemented only in the OECD countries (Inequality). Methods: Using the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) dataset on mortality from 823 locations in 52 countries and territories, we estimated the temperature-mortality exposure-response functions (ERFs). The LULCC and noLULCC scenarios were implemented in three fully coupled Earth system models (ESMs): CESM, MPI-ESM, and EC-Earth. Next, using temperature from the ESMs’ simulations and the estimated location-specific ERFs, we assessed the temperature-related impact on mortality for the LULCC and noLULCC scenarios around mid- and end-century. Results: Under Sustainability, the multi-model mean changes in excess mortality by 2050-59 range from -1.1 to +0.6 percentage points across all locations, and from -1.4 to +0.5 percentage points by 2090-2099. Under Inequality, these vary from -0.7 to +0.9 percentage points by 2050-59, and from -1.3 to +2 percentage points by 2090-99. Conclusions: While an unequal socioeconomic development and unsustainable land-use could increase the burden of heat-related mortality in most regions, globally sustainable land-use has a potential to reduce it in some locations. However, total (cold and heat) impact on mortality is very location-specific and strongly depends on the underlying climate change scenario due to non-linearity in the temperature-mortality relationship.
Item Type | Article |
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Faculty and Department | Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Public Health, Environments and Society |
Elements ID | 228240 |
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