Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China.

Bhatia, SORCID logo; Imai, NORCID logo; Cuomo-Dannenburg, GORCID logo; Baguelin, M; Boonyasiri, A; Cori, A; Cucunubá, Z; Dorigatti, I; FitzJohn, R; Fu, HORCID logo; +17 more...Gaythorpe, K; Ghani, A; Hamlet, A; Hinsley, W; Laydon, DORCID logo; Nedjati-Gilani, G; Okell, LORCID logo; Riley, S; Thompson, H; van Elsland, SORCID logo; Volz, E; Wang, HORCID logo; Wang, Y; Whittaker, C; Xi, X; Donnelly, CAORCID logo; Ferguson, NM and (2020) Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China. Wellcome open research, 5. 143-. ISSN 2398-502X DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15805.3
Copy

Background: As of August 2021, every region of the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 196,000,000 cases worldwide. Methods: We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries. Results: Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that up to 70% (95% CI: 54% - 80%) of imported cases could remain undetected relative to the sensitivity of surveillance in Singapore. The percentage of undetected imported cases rises to 75% (95% CI 66% - 82%) when comparing to the surveillance sensitivity in multiple countries. Conclusions: Our analysis shows that a large number of COVID-19 cases remain undetected across the world.  These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.


picture_as_pdf
Bhatia-etal-2021-Estimating-the-number-of-undetected-COVID-19-cases-among-travellers-from-mainland-China.pdf
subject
Published Version
Available under Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0

View Download

Atom BibTeX OpenURL ContextObject in Span Multiline CSV OpenURL ContextObject Dublin Core Dublin Core MPEG-21 DIDL Data Cite XML EndNote HTML Citation JSON MARC (ASCII) MARC (ISO 2709) METS MODS RDF+N3 RDF+N-Triples RDF+XML RIOXX2 XML Reference Manager Refer Simple Metadata ASCII Citation EP3 XML
Export

Downloads