Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.

Chen, Kai; de Schrijver, Evan; Sivaraj, Sidharth; Sera, Francesco; Scovronick, Noah; Jiang, Leiwen; Roye, Dominic; Lavigne, Eric; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; +8 more... Schneider, Alexandra; Huber, Veronika; Madureira, Joana; Mistry, Malcolm N; Cvijanovic, Ivana; MCC Collaborative Research Network; Gasparrini, Antonio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; (2024) Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels. Nature communications, 15 (1). 1796-. ISSN 2041-1723 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z

Abstract

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

Additional Information

Item Type	Article
Faculty and Department	Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Public Health, Environments and Society
Research Centre	Centre for Climate Change and Planetary Health
Elements ID	215929
Official URL	http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z