Lucinde, Ruth K; Mugo, Daisy; Bottomley, Christian; Karani, Angela; Gardiner, Elizabeth; Aziza, Rabia; Gitonga, John N; Karanja, Henry; Nyagwange, James; Tuju, James; +32 more... Wanjiku, Perpetual; Nzomo, Edward; Kamuri, Evans; Thuranira, Kaugiria; Agunda, Sarah; Nyutu, Gideon; Etyang, Anthony O; Adetifa, Ifedayo MO; Kagucia, Eunice; Uyoga, Sophie; Otiende, Mark; Otieno, Edward; Ndwiga, Leonard; Agoti, Charles N; Aman, Rashid A; Mwangangi, Mercy; Amoth, Patrick; Kasera, Kadondi; Nyaguara, Amek; Ng'ang'a, Wangari; Ochola, Lucy B; Namdala, Emukule; Gaunya, Oscar; Okuku, Rosemary; Barasa, Edwine; Bejon, Philip; Tsofa, Benjamin; Ochola-Oyier, L Isabella; Warimwe, George M; Agweyu, Ambrose; Scott, J Anthony G; Gallagher, Katherine E; (2022) Sero-surveillance for IgG to SARS-CoV-2 at antenatal care clinics in three Kenyan referral hospitals: Repeated cross-sectional surveys 2020-21. PLoS One, 17 (10). e0265478-. ISSN 1932-6203 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0265478
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Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The high proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have remained undetected presents a challenge to tracking the progress of the pandemic and estimating the extent of population immunity. METHODS: We used residual blood samples from women attending antenatal care services at three hospitals in Kenya between August 2020 and October 2021and a validated IgG ELISA for SARS-Cov-2 spike protein and adjusted the results for assay sensitivity and specificity. We fitted a two-component mixture model as an alternative to the threshold analysis to estimate of the proportion of individuals with past SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: We estimated seroprevalence in 2,981 women; 706 in Nairobi, 567 in Busia and 1,708 in Kilifi. By October 2021, 13% of participants were vaccinated (at least one dose) in Nairobi, 2% in Busia. Adjusted seroprevalence rose in all sites; from 50% (95%CI 42-58) in August 2020, to 85% (95%CI 78-92) in October 2021 in Nairobi; from 31% (95%CI 25-37) in May 2021 to 71% (95%CI 64-77) in October 2021 in Busia; and from 1% (95% CI 0-3) in September 2020 to 63% (95% CI 56-69) in October 2021 in Kilifi. Mixture modelling, suggests adjusted cross-sectional prevalence estimates are underestimates; seroprevalence in October 2021 could be 74% in Busia and 72% in Kilifi. CONCLUSIONS: There has been substantial, unobserved transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Nairobi, Busia and Kilifi Counties. Due to the length of time since the beginning of the pandemic, repeated cross-sectional surveys are now difficult to interpret without the use of models to account for antibody waning.
Item Type | Article |
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Faculty and Department | Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & International Health (2023-) |
Research Centre | Centre for Maternal, Reproductive and Child Health (MARCH) |
PubMed ID | 36240176 |
Elements ID | 195896 |
Official URL | http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0265478 |
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