Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data

Ojal, John; Brand, Samuel PC

; Were, Vincent; Okiro, Emelda A

; Kombe, Ivy K; Mburu, Caroline

; Aziza, Rabia

; Ogero, Morris

; Agweyu, Ambrose

; Warimwe, George M

; +16 more...Uyoga, Sophie

; Adetifa, Ifedayo MO

; Scott, J Anthony G

; Otieno, Edward

; Ochola-Oyier, Lynette I; Agoti, Charles N

; Kasera, Kadondi; Amoth, Patrick; Mwangangi, Mercy; Aman, Rashid; Ng’ang’a, Wangari; Tsofa, Benjamin

; Bejon, Philip

; Barasa, Edwine; Keeling, Matt J

; and Nokes, D James

(2022) Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data. Wellcome Open Research, 6. p. 127. ISSN 2398-502X DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3

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<ns3:p>Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.</ns3:p>